Syrian rebels strike back: Old alliances cant help Assad this time
Recent rebel attacks in northern Syria break years-long military deadlock. With Russia tied up in Ukraine and Iran under pressure‚ Assadʼs regime faces its biggest test since the early war days
Back in 2015 Vladimir Putin sent Russian forces to Syria helping Bashar al-Assad keep power; that move changed everything. Now almost ten years later the game-board looks different
The north-Syrian landscape changed dramatically this fall when opposition groups hit regime positions in Aleppo and Idlib breaking a five-year-old stand-still. The well-planned attacks showed how much has shifted since mid-2010s: the regime got weaker while rebels got stronger
The current state of Assadʼs government shows many weak spots (its economy is down‚ local groups dont follow orders‚ and militia-groups do what they want). On the flip side rebels united under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leadership became more organized than ever:
- Better military planning
- Stronger command structure
- Improved fighting skills
- More unified strategy
Putinʼs Russia cant help much now - its stuck in the Ukraine war while Tehran deals with non-stop Israeli air-strikes that hit their Syria bases. Both allies have their hands full: Russia wants to protect its Mediterranean ports; Iran tries to keep its Iraq-to-Lebanon supply routes open
The timing hits hard on Assadʼs diplomatic work too. He almost got Gulf countries to be friends again and they were asking USA to drop some rules against Syria - now thats all up in air. Washington might need to think again about its Syria plans since Kurdish groups run north-east parts while rebels hold north-west
Even though rebels wont take Damascus or the coast areas from Assad‚ these new fights show Syriaʼs problems arent done yet. The peace that Russia and Iran built seems shaky now - next few weeks will tell if they can fix things or if everything changes again
