Poll Reveals Tory Members Split on Potential Merger with Reform UK

A recent YouGov poll has unveiled a significant divide among Conservative Party members regarding a potential merger with Reform UK. The survey, conducted among 910 Tory members, revealed that 42% support such a move, while 51% oppose it.

This division reflects the ongoing debate about the future direction of the Conservative Party, which was founded in 1834 and has had 28 leaders since its inception. The poll results come as the party prepares for its leadership race, set to commence in the coming week.

The survey also highlighted a desire for ideological shift among party members. A majority (51%) believe the next leader should steer the party towards the right, while only 12% favor maintaining the current ideological position. Interestingly, 34% of members expressed a preference for a move towards the center.

Among the six leadership candidates, Kemi Badenoch, Mel Stride, and James Cleverly have explicitly ruled out a merger with Reform UK. Cleverly, who served as Shadow Home Secretary, stated that the party "doesn't do mergers." Meanwhile, Robert Jenrick emphasized the need to "retire Nigel Farage" and make Reform "redundant."

Farage, who currently represents the Clacton constituency (created in 2010), expressed openness to leading a merged Reform-Conservative party. In June 2024, he told LBC:

"I think something new is going to emerge on the centre-Right, I don't know what it is called. But do I think I am capable of leading a national opposition to a Labour Party with a big majority where I can stand up and hold them to account on issues? Yes."

The poll also revealed support for various policy positions among Conservative members. 68% backed leaving the European Convention on Human Rights, which was drafted in 1950 and ratified by 46 countries. 56% supported reintroducing the Rwanda asylum scheme, first announced in April 2022, while 57% favored a five-year freeze on all migration to the UK.

The most popular policy ideas among the grassroots were building more hospitals and banning under-18s from legally changing their gender, both supported by 86% of members. The latter reflects ongoing debates about gender self-identification that have been prominent in the UK since the mid-2010s.

As the Conservative Party grapples with its future direction, the upcoming leadership race will likely be pivotal in determining the party's stance on these crucial issues and its potential relationship with Reform UK.