In late-2024 European defense planning faces a shake-up as Donald Trump prepares for his potential White House return. His warning about NATO members defense spending has created a new-found urgency across the continent
The former president made it clear: countries not meeting 2% GDP defense spending shouldnt expect US protection (even against Russian threats); theres talk he might raise that minimum to 3%. This push made Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz call for a more sovereign Europe last week
The UKʼs position is getting complex - Sir Keir Starmer needs to handle a tricky math problem. Current spending sits at 2.33% GDP; Labour promised 2.5%‚ which means extra £10bn yearly. The governments recent tax-raising budget makes this target hard-to-reach
Military experts point to concerning gaps: Francis Tusa defense analyst says:
- Existing equipment needs updates
- Nuclear deterrent costs are rising
- Tank numbers are dropping
- Ship availability is limited
- Aircraft readiness needs work
Defense industry faces its own hurdles. David Lockwood from Babcock explains: “If someone says ʼI want this nowʼ‚ thats quite difficult“. The company works on three Type-31 frigates at Rosyth - scaling up needs more trained workers
European capitals watch closely as Jan-20 approaches. While some doubt Trump will follow through with NATO threats‚ the very uncertainty makes nations re-think their defense strategies. The PM stays diplomatic saying UK-US ties “will continue to prosper“ - but behind closed doors everyoneʼs making back-up plans