Olaf Scholz's recent implementation of temporary border controls marks a significant departure from his predecessor's open borders policy. This shift, however, may have come too late to secure his position as German Chancellor in the upcoming September 2025 federal elections.
The decision to impose controls at Germany's borders has inadvertently bolstered the position of Friedrich Merz, the leader of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Merz, who has long distanced himself from Angela Merkel's immigration policies, is now viewed as a strong contender for the chancellorship.
Merz's CDU, founded in 1945, has been polling significantly higher than Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD), the oldest existing political party in Germany, established in 1863. The SPD's poor performance in the June 2024 European elections, where immigration emerged as the primary concern for voters, has further weakened Scholz's position.
The Chancellor's delayed response to immigration issues became particularly evident following a terror attack in Solingen in late August 2024. This incident, coupled with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party's subsequent electoral successes in Thuringia and Saxony, has intensified pressure on Scholz to take decisive action.
"The Chancellor needs to do much more to address the immigration crisis."
Germany, the EU's most populous member state with approximately 83 million inhabitants, plays a crucial role in shaping European policy. The introduction of border controls with long-standing EU members like France, Luxembourg, Denmark, and the Netherlands represents a symbolic challenge to the Schengen Area, a cornerstone of European integration since 1995.
While these measures don't signify the end of the Schengen zone, they reflect growing concerns about migration across Europe. The risk of similar actions by other member states could put additional pressure on the free movement agreement, which currently encompasses 27 countries.
The shifting political landscape in Germany may have implications beyond its borders. In the UK, opposition leader Sir Keir Starmer could potentially leverage these developments to negotiate new agreements on migration control as part of efforts to improve post-Brexit relations with the EU.
As Brandenburg prepares for state elections in September 2024, immigration remains at the forefront of voters' concerns. The outcome of these elections, along with the broader shift in German politics, could significantly influence the future of both domestic and European immigration policies.