Scottish Tory Leaders Caution Against Right-Wing Shift to Counter Reform UK

In the lead-up to the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, Scottish Conservative leadership candidates are advising against a rightward shift to reclaim voters from Reform UK. This comes in response to a recent poll indicating potential losses for the Tories to Nigel Farage's party in the upcoming Holyrood election.

Murdo Fraser, the shadow business secretary, cautioned against embracing what he termed the "Farage agenda." He argued that such a move could result in the loss of more moderate voters than the number of Reform supporters they might gain. Fraser emphasized the importance of listening to concerns and demonstrating a willingness to change to win back disillusioned Conservative voters.

Russell Findlay, another frontrunner in the leadership contest, echoed similar sentiments. He interpreted the 7% support for Reform UK in the July 2024 general election as a "cry of frustration and a demand for change." Findlay stressed the need to reconnect with traditional conservative voters by showcasing their values and rebuilding trust.

"We must not vilify the people who voted Reform. Instead, we need to recognise that they have legitimate concerns which need to be addressed."

The Scottish Parliament, established in 1999 as part of the UK's devolution process, uses a mixed electoral system with constituency and regional list votes. This Additional Member System (AMS) allows for a more proportional representation in the 129-member parliament.

A poll conducted in August 2024 gave Reform UK 9% support on both the constituency and regional list votes for the 2026 Holyrood election. This level of support could potentially result in eight seats for Farage's party, primarily at the expense of the Scottish Conservatives. The poll suggested the Tories' representation could drop from 31 to 18 MSPs, pushing them into a distant third place with only 12% support in the constituency vote.

Fraser acknowledged the challenge posed by Reform UK's rise but cautioned against assuming all their votes come from the Conservatives. He emphasized the need for honesty, integrity, and delivering on promises to win back voters.

Findlay warned against dismissing Reform UK as a temporary phenomenon, noting that their support was not far behind that of the Tories in Scotland. He recognized that immigration concerns contributed to Reform's popularity but also highlighted "uniquely Scottish reasons" for their strong showing, including voter frustration with Holyrood's handling of everyday issues.

To regain support, Findlay proposed focusing on shared values such as aspiration, ambition, opportunity, and effective law and order. He emphasized the importance of making and keeping realistic promises.

The Scottish Conservative Party, which has never held power in the Scottish Parliament, faces a significant challenge in maintaining its position as a major opposition party. As the 2026 election approaches, the party's strategy in addressing the rise of Reform UK while retaining its core values will be crucial in shaping Scotland's political landscape.