Harris Maintains Slim Lead Over Trump in Tight 2024 Presidential Race
With less than a month until Election Day, Kamala Harris holds a narrow lead over Donald Trump. Swing states remain fiercely contested, with immigration and abortion emerging as key issues shaping voter preferences.
As the 2024 US presidential election approaches its climax, Kamala Harris maintains a slight edge over Donald Trump in national polls. With Election Day set for November 5, 2024, the race remains highly competitive, particularly in crucial swing states.
Harris, who became the Democratic nominee following Joe Biden's withdrawal, currently leads Trump by three percentage points in aggregated national polls. However, the outcome of the election will ultimately be determined by the Electoral College system, established by the US Constitution in 1787.
The Electoral College consists of 538 electors, corresponding to the total number of representatives in Congress plus three for Washington D.C. To secure the presidency, a candidate must win a majority of 270 electoral votes. This system has led to five instances where the popular vote winner did not become president, most recently in 2016 when Hillary Clinton lost to Trump despite winning the popular vote.
Seven states are considered key battlegrounds in 2024: Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada. These swing states, accounting for 93 electoral votes, are expected to determine the election's outcome.
Pennsylvania, with its significant electoral weight, is shaping up to be the tightest race in the country. The state, which voted Democratic in every presidential election from 1988 to 2012, went to Trump in 2016 before flipping back to Biden in 2020. Current polls show Harris and Trump in a virtual tie.
Immigration and abortion have emerged as the most polarizing issues of the campaign. Harris, who was tasked with addressing the "root causes" of Central American migration early in her term, has faced criticism as a "failed border tsar." However, her stance on reproductive rights, including her commitment to restoring Roe v. Wade, has garnered support among voters who favor abortion rights.
The vice presidential candidates are also playing significant roles in the campaign. JD Vance, Trump's 40-year-old running mate, has faced controversy due to past comments and gaffes at rallies. In contrast, Harris's pick, 60-year-old Minnesota governor Tim Walz, has been promoted as a candidate with small-town Midwestern roots.
"We need to address the immigration crisis head-on, but we must do so with compassion and respect for human dignity."
The vice presidential debate on October 1, 2024, was relatively cordial, with Vance's performance receiving slightly more favorable reviews in snap polls.
As the election enters its final weeks, both campaigns are intensifying their efforts in swing states. The 2020 election saw the highest voter turnout in over a century, with 66.8% of eligible voters participating. Whether 2024 will see similar engagement remains to be seen.
With the race so close, every vote in swing states could be crucial. The US has never had a female president or vice president, adding an extra layer of historical significance to Harris's candidacy. As November 5 approaches, Americans prepare to participate in a democratic tradition dating back to 1789, when George Washington was unanimously elected as the first US president.
