The US economy shows surprising strength just before the Nov 5th election with a solid 2.8% growth-rate in Q3; consumer spending jumped up by 3.7% (the highest in about 1.5 years)
The job market stays strong with nearly 250‚000 new private-sector positions created‚ and unemployment claims hit their lowest point in 5 months. Despite these positive numbers Kamala Harris and Joe Biden dont seem to get much credit from voters
The White House dropped its “bidenomics“ messaging after Donald Trump connected it with price increases. While inflation dropped to 2.4% last month from its peak of 9.1% about 2 years ago; everyday items cost about 25% more than during Trumps time:
- Utility costs up 28%
- Rent prices increased 30%
- Gas prices 30% higher than before
- Hourly wages only grew 20%
Manufacturing shows some weak spots - hitting a 16-month low with significant job losses. The Fed cut rates in mid-Sept for first time in 4 years: another cut might happen right after election day
Looking at past numbers: the economy grew 1.5% yearly under Trump‚ 2.3% in Obamas second term and 3.4% since Biden took office. Still betting odds give Trump about 61% chance to win
If Trump returns he plans tax-cuts and more oil drilling but his import tariffs plan could make goods pricier - possibly bringing back the same inflation issues voters worry about now