Back in 2016 Steve Bannon made a smart guess: identity politics would hurt Democrats. Now about 8 years later his words became true - Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris in a way nobody expected
The numbers tell an interesting story: while Harris got more white votes Trump got way more Hispanic Asian and other minority votes (a huge 13-point swing among Hispanic voters). Its quite different from what many people thought would happen
Trumps anti-illegal immigration message worked well with legal immigrants: they liked his tough-but-fair approach. One voter Abigail Solorzano whose parents came from Nicaragua explained it well:
You dont know their background; we dont know what theyʼre doing Its scary
The so-called woke agenda didnt work with many minority groups. For example only 4% of Hispanic people use the term “Latinx“ which shows how some progressive ideas dont connect with these communities
The economic side played a big role too - high prices and jobs were top concerns for everyone. Exit polls showed 67% of voters thought the economy was not-so-good which helped Trump win. His message about legal immigration and economic growth hit home with working-class voters of all backgrounds
- Hispanic counties switched to Republican side
- Legal immigrants supported strict border control
- Religious values played a big-role in voting choices
- Cost-of-living worries beat identity politics
Over in Britain similar changes are happening. Kemi Badenoch becoming Conservative leader shows how right-wing parties can appeal to minority voters: its about shared values not identity politics anymore