A recent failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump has introduced a new element of unpredictability into the 2024 US presidential election. Ryan Routh, armed with an AK-47, was thwarted by the Secret Service, an agency established in 1865 primarily to combat currency counterfeiting.
Prior to this incident, Trump's campaign had been struggling. His opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, had gained momentum following a successful debate performance and media scrutiny of Trump's controversial comments about Haitian migrants. However, this assassination attempt could potentially shift the narrative.
While the impact on overall voter preferences is expected to be limited, with less than 10% of the electorate considered persuadable, the incident may energize Trump's core supporters. An ABC News poll conducted from September 11-13, 2024, had shown a decline in strong Trump backers among Republicans from 60% in late August to 50%. This trend could potentially reverse in the wake of the assassination attempt.
The international community is closely monitoring these developments. Routh's reported support for Ukraine, including attempts to join the Ukrainian Foreign Legion formed in 2022, could further antagonize Trump's base against Ukraine. This comes as Trump's running mate, JD Vance, has called for freezing the Russia-Ukraine conflict along current borders.
"Hatreds within Western societies will produce a wave of terrorist attacks against politicians."
The Kremlin, along with China and Iran, may attempt to leverage this incident to highlight perceived flaws in American democracy. The polarization in US politics, exemplified by two assassination attempts on a major party candidate in one summer, plays into their narrative.
This event adds to the unpredictability of the 2024 election cycle, potentially impacting not only domestic politics but also international relations. As the United States navigates these turbulent waters, the world watches closely, aware that the outcome could have far-reaching consequences for global affairs.