Poll Shows Cleverly Leading Tory Leadership Race, Starmer Ahead Overall

A recent Savanta poll has revealed James Cleverly as the public's preferred choice for the next Conservative Party leader, narrowly outperforming his rivals. However, the survey also indicates a significant challenge for the Tories, as Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer consistently outranks all potential Conservative candidates in head-to-head comparisons for the role of Prime Minister.

The poll results show Sir Keir Starmer leading James Cleverly by a substantial margin, with 47% of respondents favoring Starmer compared to 23% for Cleverly when asked who would make the better Prime Minister. Similar patterns emerged in comparisons with other Conservative hopefuls, including Tom Tugendhat, Robert Jenrick, Kemi Badenoch, and Mel Stride.

Interestingly, even among those who voted Conservative in the recent 2024 general election, there is a notable level of uncertainty. A significant proportion of 2024 Tory voters responded with "don't know" when asked to choose between Starmer and the Conservative candidates.

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, commented on the findings:

"Even accounting for incumbent prime ministers having a natural advantage on this metric, this research shows that Starmer wipes the floor with all the prospective Conservative leaders on who the public thinks would make the best PM."

Hopkins added that the research suggests there isn't an obvious Conservative leader who could win an election in the public's eye, highlighting the challenges facing the party.

The Conservative leadership race is currently in progress, with Robert Jenrick leading after the first ballot of Tory MPs. The remaining five candidates will participate in a hustings before the second round of voting on September 10, 2024. The final two candidates will be determined through further MP votes, with Conservative Party members making the final decision. The winner is set to be announced on November 2, 2024.

Support for the candidates varies within the shadow cabinet, with Kemi Badenoch securing endorsements from more than a third of its members. The upcoming annual Conservative Party conference at the end of September 2024 is expected to see increased attendance, as grassroots activists are keen to hear from the leadership hopefuls.

As the Conservative Party navigates this leadership transition, it faces the challenge of bridging the gap in public perception between its potential leaders and Sir Keir Starmer. The outcome of this race will be crucial in shaping the party's strategy for the next general election and its ability to compete effectively against the Labour Party.