Recent developments in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine have brought the war closer to the heart of Russian power. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their ability to strike deep within Russian territory, including the capital city of Moscow, challenging Vladimir Putin's narrative of Russian invulnerability.
In a significant turn of events, Ukrainian military operations have resulted in the occupation of over 1,250 square kilometers of Russian territory, a situation unseen since the end of World War II in 1945. This incursion into the Kursk region, located approximately 500 km south of Moscow, has raised questions about Russia's ability to defend its borders.
The psychological impact of these operations has been further amplified by a series of drone strikes on Moscow itself. Russian authorities acknowledged that Ukraine launched more than 45 separate drone sorties into Russian territory, with at least 11 targeting the capital. This attack rivals the scale of a similar incident in May 2023, when eight drones were reportedly destroyed over Moscow.
The drone strikes have had tangible consequences for Moscow's residents. All three of the city's major airports - Sheremetyevo, Domodedovo, and Vnukovo - were forced to shut down, causing widespread travel disruption. This brings the reality of the conflict to the doorstep of Russian civilians, many of whom have previously viewed the war as a distant event.
Ukraine's military strategy appears to be evolving, leveraging advanced intelligence capabilities to overcome disadvantages in manpower and conventional munitions. By exploiting gaps in Russian defenses, Ukrainian forces have demonstrated an ability to project power beyond the immediate conflict zone.
These developments come at a time when Putin was returning from a visit to Chechnya, a republic in the North Caucasus region with its own complex history of conflict with the Russian government. The timing of the attacks raises questions about the effectiveness of Russian intelligence services and further erodes Putin's image of control.
The psychological impact of these strikes extends beyond immediate physical damage. They challenge the assurances given to residents of major Russian cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg that they would be insulated from the effects of the war. This strategy may be aimed at influencing public opinion among Russia's middle class and the influential group of businessmen known as oligarchs.
"Russian forces (and their Chechen mercenaries) are absolutely, absolutely invincible."
However, the recent successes of Ukrainian forces on both land and in the air contradict this claim of invincibility. The use of drones, which have become increasingly prevalent in modern warfare since the early 2000s, demonstrates the evolving nature of conflict and the challenges of maintaining absolute security in the face of technological advancements.
As the war continues, the impact on Russian civilians in major cities may play a crucial role in shaping public opinion. The ability of Ukrainian forces to bring the conflict to Moscow itself challenges the narrative of a distant war and may force a reassessment of the conflict's costs among the Russian population.