In mid-2024 Donald Trump made a bold statement at his coronation: “Manufacturing jobs‚ weʼre gonna get them all back‚ every single one of them“. His recent win marks a clear shift from globalization-first policies that shaped past decades
Back in the day Tony Blair pushed hard for globalization (during his famous 05ʼ speech) saying it was like seasons changing: you cant stop it. The results werenʼt great - lost factories cheap imports and communities that got left-behind. Even Francis Fukuyama who once backed these ideas now thinks differently: he wrote in FT about how working-class got hurt while world got richer
Chinaʼs troubles are making things interesting: lots of empty offices (about 40% of them) and big-name companies moving out. Apple is cutting back; IBM moved some research work elsewhere this past aug. Things got so bad that Chinaʼs own media had to make noise about Foxconn coming back
The US has what it needs to make stuff again - money skills and resources (Trump calls oil “liquid gold“). Heʼs got plans: no more electric-car rules and something he calls an “iron dome defense system“ thatʼll be made right here in america. Europeʼs different story though:
- Poland keeps making stuff - about 1/3 of what they earn comes from factories
- Germanyʼs having trouble with cheap imports‚ high energy costs
- UK pays most for factory power worldwide - 4x more than Mexico
British engineering is still good with companies like Dyson and David McMurtryʼs Renishaw making it big; but there arenʼt many of them. Marcus Gibson who watches small companies says: “We have fantastic engineers but they are rarely backed“
The real problem is old thinking - some folks still believe in what books from 99-00 said about not needing factories. Left side wants green rules nobody else follows; right side doesnʼt want to help pick winning companies. Modern factories could make things better and cleaner if we just cut the red tape and let them work