On September 25, 2024, China publicly announced a successful launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) into the Pacific Ocean, marking a significant milestone in its military capabilities. The People's Liberation Army Rocket Force conducted the test at 8:44 am local time, with the missile carrying a dummy warhead and landing in predetermined areas of the ocean.
China's defense ministry characterized the launch as a "routine arrangement" within their annual training plan, emphasizing that it was not directed at any specific country or target. However, military analysts view this test as a strategic demonstration of power, particularly given the current geopolitical climate in the region.
The timing of this launch is crucial, occurring amidst growing tensions over China's nuclear build-up and expansionist ambitions. These developments have created potential flashpoints with neighboring countries, including Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines. Drew Thompson, a former US defense official and current senior fellow at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, stated, "This launch is a powerful signal intended to intimidate everyone."
This test marks the first time in over four decades that China is known to have successfully conducted an atmospheric test of an ICBM. The country's first ICBM test took place in May 1980 with the DF-5, which had a range of over 5,500 miles. Since then, most of China's nuclear weapons tests have been conducted underground.
China's nuclear arsenal has been expanding at an unprecedented rate. According to a June 2024 report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China is expanding its nuclear capabilities "faster than any other country." The Pentagon's China Military Power Report estimated that, as of May 2023, China had approximately 500 operational nuclear warheads, with projections suggesting an increase to 1,000 by 2030 and 1,500 by 2035.
The PLA Rocket Force, responsible for overseeing China's conventional and nuclear missiles, has been tasked with modernizing the country's nuclear forces. China's most advanced ICBM, the DF-41, entered service in 2017 and boasts an operational range of up to 7,460-9,320 miles, capable of reaching the US mainland.
Euan Graham, an Indo-Pacific security expert and senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, noted that both the launch and the authorities' acknowledgment of it were "unusual." He emphasized that this test highlights China's lack of arms control restraints on nuclear weapons and signals a period of unrestricted strategic competition.
"It's a signal that China has capabilities beyond what it has already brought to bear. It's demonstrating that it has acted with a degree of restraint and that there are limits to its forbearance and its tolerance."
While China maintains a "no first use" nuclear policy, some analysts warn that the rapid pace of its nuclear build-up goes beyond credible minimum deterrence. The recent ICBM test serves as a reminder of China's growing strategic interests in the Pacific region and its potential impact on global security dynamics.
As tensions continue to simmer in the Indo-Pacific, this public display of China's ICBM capabilities underscores the need for increased dialogue and arms control measures to prevent further escalation and maintain regional stability.