Trump vs Harris: What exit polls can (and cant) tell us tomorrow evening

Tomorrowʼs big-time showdown between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris brings up questions about exit polls accuracy and timing

The first wave of exit poll data hits at 5pm ET (but dont get too excited about these early numbers). Its a three-part system that works like this:

• In-person early-voting surveys at hundreds of poll spots
• Election-day voter interviews right at voting places
• Phone‚ email and text reach-outs to mail-in voters

The whole thing includes about 20 quick questions — whoʼd you pick‚ how old are you‚ whats your background; that kind of stuff. News folks cant share anything before 5pm ET‚ and they need all polls closed in a state to call it (and even then the win margin needs to be pretty big)

Hereʼs the tricky part — those first-released numbers at 5pm are kinda shaky. Morning voters tend to be older folks (and we know older voters lean Republican)‚ so the early data gets re-worked as more info comes in throughout the night

Remember that wild story from 8 years back: exit polls said Trump got most white womenʼs votes — but later fact-checking showed it was just 47% (thats a pretty big miss). The numbers keep changing as more data rolls in; its like putting together a puzzle while someoneʼs still making the pieces

The whole point is to figure out which side got their people to show up‚ and whoʼs doing better-or-worse than expected with different voter groups. But hereʼs the thing — exit polls are more like a rough sketch than a perfect picture