Putin's peace talks game: What's behind Russia's new diplomatic moves

Recent reports show Vladimir Putin might talk about Ukraine ceasefire with future US president Donald Trump (based on info from 5 kremlin sources)

Turkish peace plan got rejected by russia — it wanted to freeze battle-lines stop Ukraineʼs nato plans for 10+ years and put international forces near east-ukraine border. This matches what Trump wants to suggest; however kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov made it clear on wed 11/21: “freezing conflict wont work for us“

Moscow keeps using peace-talks as a tool: they did it during syria war and early-2022 istanbul meetings while doing military actions. Now Putin talks to german leader Olaf Scholz about peace but doesnt change his goals

Here are main issues that block any real progress:
* Ukraineʼs use of ATACM missiles on russian land
* Ukrainian forces in kursk region
* Putins need for military industry growth
* Support from ultra-right groups after 6/23 wagner group events

Russia might use Trumps worries about world war 3 to stop ATACM strikes. Ex-kremlin advisor Sergey Markov says biden approved these weapons to hurt Trumps future presidency — this fits into trumps views about US politics

Putin needs war to keep power after that wagner group thing last summer. His deal with ultra-right groups who didnt like 2015 peace deal makes him continue fighting. Military business helps stop social problems in russia

Real change might happen if sanctions hit harder and ukraine keeps hitting far targets. This could make russiaʼs economy weak and slow down its army — then Putin might want real talks