Missing million: How UK job numbers dont add up in major counting mistake
British statistics office missed counting about 1 million workers due to poor-quality data collection. This big error made it harder for the Bank of England to manage inflation rates properly
The UKʼs job market data has a huge counting problem - about 930‚000 workers are missing from official numbers. The think-tank Resolution Foundation found that the Office for National Statistics (ONS) data-gathering methods have big flaws
Survey response rates dropped super-fast: from 39 pct in early-2019 to just 13 pct by mid-2023 (which means working people dont answer surveys much anymore). The real employment rate is probably near 76 pct - not the official 74.8 pct thats been reported for Sept-24
Adam Corlett‚ the think-tanks main economist says this mess-up left decision makers blind: the labor market looks worse than it really is. HMRC tax info and other job trackers show way different numbers; making it hard to know whats really going on with UKʼs work-force
Andrew Bailey - the Bank of Englands boss - calls this data problem super-serious. His chief numbers guy Huw Pill isnt happy with how slow fixes are coming. The ONS says its trying to do better by:
- Using tax records more
- Adding new data sources
- Making stats more detailed
- Getting info faster
In other news: Ruth Curtice (whose dad is the famous election expert) will run the Foundation starting Jan-20 next year - shes moving from her Treasury job to lead the think-tank
