How exit polls work: Key timing and methods for upcoming Trump-Harris showdown
Exit polls will start showing first results at 5pm ET on election day‚ using a mix of in-person and remote voter surveys Its a complex system that needs careful interpretation due to early sampling issues
As election-day approaches Donald Trump and Kamala Harris keep close watch on polling developments‚ with exit-polls being a key factor in understanding voter choices
The first exit-poll data (coming at 5pm ET) wont give final answers but shows early voting patterns: these pre-evening results need careful reading because of sampling issues. The exit-poll system uses a three-part approach to get voter info
- In-person early voting surveys
- Election-day polling place interviews
- Phone‚ email and text outreach for mail-in voters
The poll-takers ask about 20 questions covering voting choice age gender race and decision-making factors; news teams cant share results till after 5pm ET (and only if theres a big-enough margin in states where polls are closed)
Early exit-poll data tends to over-show older voters results - which often helps the GOP side since voters over 50 lean Republican. The numbers change as more people vote: for example the 2016 polls first showed Trump winning most white women voters but later studies found it was just 47% of that group
The exit-polls final numbers go through lots of math fixes to make them match real results better; its important to remember that early numbers dont tell the whole story and need time to become more exact
