How exit polls work: Key timing and methods for upcoming Trump-Harris showdown

Exit polls will start showing first results at 5pm ET on election day‚ using a mix of in-person and remote voter surveys Its a complex system that needs careful interpretation due to early sampling issues

October 30 2024, 07:47 PM  •  505 views

How exit polls work: Key timing and methods for upcoming Trump-Harris showdown

As election-day approaches Donald Trump and Kamala Harris keep close watch on polling developments‚ with exit-polls being a key factor in understanding voter choices

The first exit-poll data (coming at 5pm ET) wont give final answers but shows early voting patterns: these pre-evening results need careful reading because of sampling issues. The exit-poll system uses a three-part approach to get voter info

  • In-person early voting surveys
  • Election-day polling place interviews
  • Phone‚ email and text outreach for mail-in voters

The poll-takers ask about 20 questions covering voting choice age gender race and decision-making factors; news teams cant share results till after 5pm ET (and only if theres a big-enough margin in states where polls are closed)

Early exit-poll data tends to over-show older voters results - which often helps the GOP side since voters over 50 lean Republican. The numbers change as more people vote: for example the 2016 polls first showed Trump winning most white women voters but later studies found it was just 47% of that group

The exit-polls final numbers go through lots of math fixes to make them match real results better; its important to remember that early numbers dont tell the whole story and need time to become more exact