US officials have reportedly revised their expectations regarding an Israel-Hamas ceasefire, now believing that a deal is unlikely to materialize before President Biden leaves office in January 2025. This shift in perspective comes despite previous statements suggesting significant progress in negotiations.
The Wall Street Journal reports that high-ranking officials in the White House, State Department, and Pentagon no longer anticipate a breakthrough in talks between the warring parties. This assessment contrasts sharply with earlier optimistic projections. Just two weeks ago, Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that 90% of the ceasefire deal had been agreed upon. Last month, US officials even suggested that an agreement was "in the endgame" and could be reached within days.
Two major obstacles continue to impede progress:
- Israel's insistence on maintaining forces in the Philadelphi Corridor, a narrow strip along the Gaza-Egypt border
- The specifics of exchanging Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel
The ongoing conflict, which began on October 7, 2023, with Hamas's attack on Israel, has had devastating consequences. Over 41,000 Palestinians have reportedly been killed, and 2.3 million people have been displaced in Gaza. The initial Hamas attack resulted in approximately 1,200 Israeli deaths and the taking of about 250 hostages.
The United States, along with mediators Qatar and Egypt, has been working for months to secure a ceasefire. The US has emphasized that a Gaza ceasefire deal could help reduce tensions across the Middle East, addressing concerns about potential conflict escalation.
On May 31, 2024, President Biden proposed a three-phase ceasefire plan, which he claimed had Israel's agreement. However, as negotiations encountered hurdles, officials have indicated that a new proposal would be presented soon.
The conflict has drawn international attention, including allegations of genocide against Israel at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, which Israel denies. The ICC has jurisdiction over serious international crimes, including genocide and war crimes.
"I can tell you that we do not believe that deal is falling apart"
This statement, made before the recent report, highlights the complex and fluid nature of the negotiations.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has deep historical roots dating back to the early 20th century. Despite numerous peace initiatives, including the Oslo Accords of 1993 and 1995, a lasting resolution remains elusive. The international community generally supports a two-state solution, but challenges such as Israeli settlements in the West Bank, considered illegal under international law, complicate the path to peace.
As the situation evolves, the global community continues to call for an end to hostilities and a return to meaningful dialogue, recognizing the urgent need for a peaceful resolution to this long-standing conflict.