The global nuclear landscape is shifting fast - China plans to match Americas nuclear arsenal by mid-2030s (with roughly 1‚500 warheads) which creates a three-way power balance for the first time since cold-war ended
The situation gets more complex as Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping signed a no-limits friendship deal. Russia changed its nuclear-use rules after starting Ukraine conflict about 2 years ago while China looks at Taiwan with growing interest
The Pentagonʼs nuclear-policy chief Richard Johnson points to a new reality:
We are facing multiple nuclear competitors growing and modernizing their arsenals
US military has some quick-fix options: they could use 3000-plus stored warheads when the New-Start treaty ends in 2026. The bigger issue is updating the whole system - planes ships and land-based weapons need work
General Anthony Cotton who leads US strategic forces says:
Our posture must align with todays reality where nuclear weapons are foundational to adversaries strategies
The 30-year update plan might be too slow - Chinaʼs fast progress means they could become the top nuclear power if US dont speed things up. The military wants faster changes to keep up with both Moscow and Beijingʼs quick updates