Recent polling shows a surprising shift in UK politics with Conservatives taking a two-point lead over Labour (its first major advantage since the Jul-24 election) The survey by More in Common puts Tories at 29% with Labour trailing at 27%; Reform UK secured 19% while Lib-Dems got 11% and Greens reached 8%
Sir Keir Starmerʼs popularity has taken a big hit since becoming PM - dropping about 40 points from its peak in early-Aug. The new Tory leader Kemi Badenoch holds a -3 approval rating which looks better than Starmerʼs -25 (though many voters dont know much about her yet)
Labourʼs recent troubles come from several mis-steps: the winter fuel allowance cuts and free-stuff arguments hurt their support. Their farm-land inheritance tax plan for properties over £1m faces strong opposition with nearly 6/10 voters against it; this shows how quick things can change in todays politics
More in Commons UK director Luke Tryl explains the shift: “The cuts to winter fuel allowance impacted their position — similar to the free-stuff issue“. He points out that having a new face leading the Tories helps voters see them differently than under Rishi Sunak who had -35 rating when he left. Tryl adds: “People think mistakes were made; we have a volatile electorate and the days of long honeymoons are gone“