A recent poll conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph suggests that Kamala Harris may be on track to secure the presidency in the upcoming November 2024 election. The survey, focusing on seven key swing states, indicates that the vice president has made significant gains against her opponent, Donald Trump.
According to the poll, Harris is projected to win crucial battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. These victories would potentially allocate her 270 electoral college delegates, the minimum required to clinch the presidency. This narrow path to victory mirrors the strategy employed by Joe Biden in the 2020 election, relying heavily on support from the Midwest's Rust Belt states.
The poll reveals interesting shifts in voter preferences since the previous survey. Trump maintains a lead in Sun Belt swing states like Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. However, his support in North Carolina has decreased by two points since the last poll conducted before the Democratic National Convention. Harris has narrowed the gap in both North Carolina and Arizona, trailing by just one point in each state.
Notably, Biden's decision to step back from the presidential race on July 21, 2024, appears to have influenced voter sentiment. While Biden faces negative approval ratings in most polled states, Harris enjoys positive ratings across all seven battleground states.
The economy remains the top concern for voters in all surveyed states. Approximately half of the respondents reported a decline in their personal finances over the past year. Harris has aligned herself with Biden's economic plans, which include substantial tax increases targeting the wealthiest Americans. These proposals encompass changes to capital gains tax, corporation tax, and rules on large inherited assets.
"Harris is running a radical Left-wing campaign."
In contrast, Trump has proposed tax cuts and the elimination of taxes on hospitality workers' tips. Despite these differing approaches, voters in five of the seven states express more trust in Trump on economic matters. Interestingly, the largest group of voters in all states preferred "the Democratic position" on the economy, even in areas where Trump was more trusted individually.
The poll also highlights the importance of Pennsylvania as a major battleground state. Both candidates and their running mates have made multiple campaign stops in the state. In July 2024, Trump was the target of an assassination attempt while campaigning in Butler County, Pennsylvania. Despite this incident, he has announced plans to return to the area for a second rally in the near future.
As the election approaches, both candidates have potential paths to securing the necessary 270 electoral votes. The outcome may hinge on a handful of closely contested states, with Pennsylvania playing a pivotal role in determining the next occupant of the White House.