As the Scottish Conservative Party leadership race nears its conclusion, candidate Murdo Fraser has indicated he does not expect to emerge victorious against Russell Findlay, whom he describes as the "party establishment" choice. The contest, set to conclude on September 27, 2024, has highlighted internal party challenges and looming external threats.
Fraser, an MSP since 2001, expressed his motivations for entering the race in a recent article. He stated, "I entered the contest late without much real expectation of winning, it being clear from the outset that the party establishment had already decided that Russell should be the man to succeed Douglas Ross." Despite this, Fraser felt compelled to participate, providing a platform to voice concerns about party organization and the need for change.
The leadership contest has brought attention to internal issues within the Scottish Conservative Party, which was founded in 1912 as the Unionist Party and adopted its current name in 1965. Fraser noted that the race had "shone a light into some dark places which needed the antiseptic of exposure, not least the treatment of women in the party." This comment follows allegations by candidate Meghan Gallacher of a dirty tricks campaign involving senior party figures.
Looking ahead, the new leader will face significant challenges. The Scottish Conservatives, who have never won a Holyrood election since the parliament's establishment in 1999, are currently the main opposition party with 31 seats. However, recent polls suggest the party could lose around half of its MSPs in the upcoming 2026 election.
A major external threat comes from Nigel Farage's Reform UK, formerly known as the Brexit Party. Fraser warned against chasing Reform UK votes by adopting an anti-devolution stance, describing such a strategy as "counter-productive and potentially disastrous." This caution reflects the delicate balance the Scottish Conservatives must strike, given their historically pro-devolution but anti-independence stance.
Russell Findlay, the frontrunner in the race, brings a unique background to the contest. Before entering politics and becoming an MSP in 2021, Findlay had a successful three-decade career in journalism. He has rejected claims of being the "establishment" candidate, describing such accusations as "fanciful."
The outcome of this leadership contest will be crucial for the Scottish Conservatives as they prepare for the 2026 Holyrood elections. With 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament and the party's best performance to date being 31 seats in 2016, the new leader will need to navigate both internal party dynamics and external political challenges to maintain the party's position as the official opposition, a role they have held since 2016.
As voting closes on September 26, 2024, the Scottish Conservative Party, with its headquarters in Edinburgh, stands at a crossroads. The new leader will inherit a party with a rich history but facing modern challenges, including declining representation in the UK Parliament, where they currently hold only one seat. The task ahead involves not only addressing internal issues but also crafting a strategy to appeal to voters in a changing political landscape.